Updated
21 August 2002
|
| Project Title: |
An Economic Analysis of the Pacific Halibut
Commercial Fishery |
| Project Number: |
R/32-02 |
Initiation Date: |
02/01/2002 |
| Revision Date: |
|
Completion Date: |
01/31/2004 |
| Principal Investigator: |
Keith
Criddle |
| Affiliation: |
Department of Economics, Utah State University |
| Co-Principal Investigator: |
Mark Herrmann |
| Affiliation: |
Dept. of Economics, School of Management,
UAF |
| Sea Grant Funds: |
$91,778 |
| Match Funds: |
$25,880 |
| Related Projects: |
|
| Parent Projects: |
|
| Keywords: |
Pacific halibut, exvessel demand, bioeconomic
simulation-optimization, market impacts of IFQs |
| 1. Objectives: |
We propose to develop an empirically
based stochastic bioeconomic simulation-optimization model of
the Pacific halibut fishery. The model will include a mixed structural–time
series model of halibut population dynamics, a simultaneous equation
system model of halibut exvessel price formation that incorporates
the effects of inventories and international trade in halibut
and related products, and a model of input requirements and costs
of harvesting. These estimated relationships will be used to parameterize
a stochastic simulation-optimization model suitable for exploring
the impacts of changes in the quantity of halibut available for
commercial harvest. |
| 2. Rationale: |
We believe that this project is timely and
important because recent events, such as the adoption of Guideline
Harvest Limits (GHLs) and Individual Fishing Quotas (IFQs) in the
halibut charter-based sportfishing sector, have led to increased
scrutiny of the basis for and consequences of particular allocations
of the halibut quota among subsistence, sport and commercial fishers.
The lack of an empirically based bioeconomic model of the commercial
sector has prevented fishery managers from quantifying the economic
consequences of changes in the quantity of halibut available to
the commercial fishery. We have designed this project to complement
our recently completed work on the sport fishery. |
| 3. Methodology: |
The model will provide an economic framework
for exploring a wide variety of issues, including a retrospective
assessment of the effects of implementation of the Individual Vessel
Quota (IVQ) program in British Columbia and implementation of the
IFQ program in Alaska, the impact on commercial harvesters of increased
allocations to sport and subsistence fisheries, the likely effect
on commercial IFQ holders of the issuance of IFQs to charter operators,
the potential economic consequences of expanded halibut mariculture
and the effects of expanding Russian sales. |
| 4. Benefits: |
The end product of this research should assist
the North Pacific Fishery Management Council and the International
Pacific Halibut Commission in understanding the economic consequences
of changes in Pacific halibut abundance and changes in the allocation
of halibut among commercial, sport and subsistence user groups.
The results will be disseminated through annual and final project
reports, academic conference presentations and refereed journal
publications. |
| 5. Accomplishments: |
August 2002
We are approximately 6 months into the two-year award. So far, we
have made great progress in the construction of the international
equilibrium supply and demand model for Alaska halibut. The model
has been constructed and estimated using 1976 to 2001 data (eventually,
2002 data will be added). The resulting structural equations have
been estimated using nonlinear, three-stage least-squares. The system
mean-level values have been simulated using a Newton algorithm.
The only area left in the market model is to simulate the confidence
intervals and then perform desired sensitivity analysis. |
| 6. Students supported: |
None. |
