Arctic Science Journeys
Radio Script
1997

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Nenana Ice Classic
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STORY: After a long, dark winter trying to stay warm and keep the pantry stocked, people in Alaska are ready for spring. The signs are everywhere. People shed their parkas, exposing acres of pasty white flesh in vain attempts to get tans. Geese migrate north--their squawking obvious signs that they're happy to be home. And no one will argue that water flooding traffic intersections is a sure sign that summer is near.

But Alaskans are by nature a gambling lot, and spring just wouldn't be the same if they couldn't stake some money on it. The town of Nenana, Alaska, 50 miles south of Fairbanks, gives them the chance. For two bucks, you can guess when ice four feet thick in the nearby Tanana River will melt. It's the annual Nenana Ice Classic, and Sherri Forness is its manager.

FORNESS: "So far this year, as far as we've counted, we have about 274,183 guesses."

In a state with just 550,000 people, a lot of Alaskans get into the act. As word of the contest spreads, guesses have come from as far away as Japan and Germany. If only for a few weeks, the Ice Classic is the largest employer in this town of 300 people.

FORNESS: "We probably have 140 people sign up to work, and we employ anywhere from 85 to 100, something like that."

Preparations begin in March. Spruce poles are cut from the nearby forest, peeled of their bark and painted in black and white stripes. The day-long celebration ends with the poles being raised into a tripod and placed in the middle of the river. Then everyone waits for nature to take its course.

FORNESS: "We have a tripod out on the river that's hooked up to a clock. And when the tripod moves 100 feet it stops the clock."

Guesses can be made from February to early April. In the 81-year history of the contest, the ice has never gone out earlier than April 20 or later than May 20th. But guessing isn't as easy as it sounds. The winner must choose the exact time, down to the minute, when the frozen Tanana River will break up. Sherri Forness says some people put a great deal of thought into picking their time.

FORNESS: "A lot of them want to know what the ice thickness is and how much snowfall we've had and what the temperatures have been. A lot of people call asking those questions. The easiest thing to do I would say is pay attention to the weather."

Ron Dearborn directs a marine research program at the University of Alaska Fairbanks. He carefully considers global climate patterns--even a scientific theory about how the moon influences Alaska's weather--before making his guess.

DEARBORN: "My assumption is that the strong patterns in ocean climate are also reflected in the weather. Ocean climate change is driven significantly by the lunar cycle. I use that 18.6 year cycle to select the day. Now when it comes to the minute I drop all science and I just wing it."

Others choose times that have special significance, such as birthdays and anniversaries. But it's possible to carry even this idea to an extreme.

FORNESS: "There was one gal in '92 I believe it was that won the whole pot, and that year it was $165,000 and somebody told me that she had picked her date from the time that her child had been conceived."

This year officials say they'll raise about $600,000. The winner or winners will receive about half the money. After expenses, the rest goes to the community library and school, and other worthwhile causes.

OUTRO: For Arctic Science Journeys, this is Debra Damron reporting from Fairbanks, Alaska.